年度趋势 | 2024 年十大战略技术趋势
Gartner 预测 2024 年十大战略技术趋势
Gartner Predicts Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2024
2023年ChatGPT 的横空出世，带我们从互联网时代走进智能时代。在已经成为现在时的2024 ，AIGC 又会带来什么机遇，风险与挑战？让我们一同进入Gartner预测的2024十大战略进步，迎接AIGC所带来的世代变革！“Your life does not get better by chance, it gets better by change.”
Gartner认为，接下来的36个月里，这10大技术趋势将给CIO和IT领导者带来重大的颠覆和机遇。
Gartner sees these 10 tech trends driving significant disruption and opportunity for CIOs and IT leaders over the next 36 months.
Gartner于10月16日在佛罗里达州奥兰多举办研讨会上发布了2024年十大战略技术趋势预测。
Gartner on Oct. 16 announced its list of the top 10 strategic technology trends for 2024 at its Gartner IT Symposium/Xpo in Orlando, Florida.
毫不意外地，AI和自动化是这些趋势背后的推动因素，Gartner认为它们将在未来36个月内为IT领导者带来巨大的颠覆和机遇。
Not surprisingly, AI and automation are behind a number of these trends, which Gartner sees driving significant disruption and opportunity for IT leaders over the next 36 months.
Gartner的副总裁分析师Bart Willemsen指出，这些趋势对于2024年的战略意义在于它们在应对技术颠覆和社会经济不确定性方面至关重要。他进一步补充道，在这个不确定时期，IT领导者在战略性地利用技术投资从而确保业务成功方面发挥着至关重要的作用。
What makes these trends strategic for 2024 is that they are essential in addressing technological disruptions and socioeconomic uncertainties, according to Bart Willemsen, VP analyst at Gartner, adding that IT leaders play a critical role in strategically leveraging technology investments to ensure business success during these uncertain times.
Gartner的卓越副总裁分析师兼首席研究员Chris Howard认为，由于技术创新的快速发展，评估这些趋势的影响和好处是极具挑战性的。他在一份声明中指出：“例如，生成式和其他类型的人工智能提供了新的机遇并推动了多个趋势的发展。然而，在使用AI技术持续提取商业价值的过程中，需要有纪律地广泛采用多种技术，并且要注意风险。”
Evaluating the impacts and benefits of these trends is challenging due to the rapid pace of technological innovation, said Chris Howard, distinguished VP Analyst and chief of research at Gartner. "For example, generative and other types of AI offer new opportunities and drive several trends. But deriving business value from the durable use of AI requires a disciplined approach to widespread adoption along with attention to the risks," Howard said in a statement.
所有这10种趋势都是基于其相关性、影响力、可操作性和组织效益而被选中的，Willemsen告诉ITPro Today。他说：“虽然生成式人工智能的民主化是一种引起重大变化和机遇的趋势，但同时也在一定程度上推动了其他趋势。广泛的可访问性促进了大规模的技术颠覆。” 他还说：“然而，在使用所有人工智能时，本质上都伴随着特定的风险，为了持续享受人工智能所带来的好处，AI信任、风险和安全管理（TRiSM）是不可或缺的，以确保增加价值并保持积极的影响。”
All 10 trends were selected for their relevance, impact, actionability, and organizational benefits, Willemsen told ITPro Today. "Democratized generative AI is nonetheless one that causes major changes and opportunities today and drives several other trends in part as well. The widespread accessibility facilitates disruption at scale," he said. "Yet, all AI usage inherently comes with specific risks, and to sustain the perceived benefits, AI Trust, Risk and Security Management [TRiSM] is invaluable to make the value increase and positive impact stick."
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以下是2024年Gartner的十大战略技术趋势：
Here are Gartner's top 10 strategic technology trends for 2024:
毫不意外的是，生成式人工智能（特别是民主化的生成式人工智能）已成为2024年值得关注的技术趋势之一。考虑到Gartner的预测：到2026年，超过80%的组织将在生产环境中使用生成式人工智能应用程序和模型，或者启用GenAI赋能的应用程序，相较于2023年初的不到5%的使用率，将会有大幅增长。
It's no surprise that generative AI – let alone democratized GenAI – made the list of tech trends to watch for 2024. Consider this Gartner prediction: By 2026, more than 80% of organizations will be using generative AI APIs and models and/or GenAI-enabled applications in production environments, a jump from less than 5% early 2023.
根据Gartner的观点，这种增长有三个原因：
The reason for this jump is threefold, according to Gartner:
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通过GenAI应用程序，用户将可以获取海量信息。
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Thanks to GenAI applications, users will gain access to vast amounts of information.
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GenAI的采用将显著推动知识和技能的普及化。
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GenAI adoption will significantly democratize knowledge and skills.
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大语言模型（LLMs）将会赋能企业，通过对话的方式将员工与知识进行连接。
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Large language models (LLMs) will enable enterprises to connect their workers with knowledge in a conversational style.
然而，普及人工智能访问的过程中可能存在一些不利因素，这些不利因素甚至可能会超过带来的好处，因此在2024年也将迫切需要AI信任、风险和安全管理（TRiSM）。
Hower, there are downsides to the democratization of AI access that could outweigh the benefits, so will also be an urgent need for AI Trust, Risk and Security Management (TRiSM) in 2024.
Gartner预测, 到2026年，通过实施AI 信任、风险和安全管理（AI TRiSM）控制措施，企业将可以消除高达80%的非法信息，进而显著提高运营决策的准确性。
Gartner forecasts that by 2026, enterprises implementing AI TRiSM controls will significantly enhance decision-making accuracy by eliminating up to 80% of illegitimate information.
AI增强开发是利用人工智能技术来帮助软件工程师设计、编码和测试应用程序的过程。AI辅助软件开发工具提高了开发者的生产效率，让他们有更多的时间去创建有影响力的商业应用程序。
AI-augmented development is the use of AI technologies to help software engineers design, code, and test applications. AI-assisted software development tools improve developer productivity, freeing them up to spend more time creating impactful business applications.
智能应用，顾名思义，具备智能能力——根据Gartner的定义，智能是指“经过学习适应能力，以适当和自主的方式做出应对”。智能应用利用各种基于人工智能的服务，以提升工作效能或自动化工作，并为个体用户提供动态适应的体验。
An intelligent application, as the name implies, has as a capability intelligence – which Gartner defines as "learned adaptation to respond appropriately and autonomously." Intelligent applications use various AI-based services to better augment or automate work and deliver experiences that dynamically adapt to the individual user.
根据Gartner在2023年针对首席执行官和高级商务执行人员的调查结果显示，有26%的首席执行官认为人才短缺是对组织最具破坏性的风险。因此，吸引和留住人才成为他们最重要的生产力任务之一。另一种策略是更有效地利用员工的能力而不过度劳累他们。为了最大化员工的价值，越来越多的组织将实施增强连接的员工团队（ACWF）战略。
The 2023 Gartner CEO and Senior Business Executive Survey found that 26% of CEOs believe the most damaging risk for their organization is the talent shortage, and so attracting and retaining talent is their top workforce priority. Another tactic is to get more out of their current staff without overtaxing them. To maximize the value of their employees, more organizations will implement the augmented-connected workforce (ACWF) strategy.
ACWF（增强连接的员工团队）借助智能应用程序（如趋势4所示）和生产力分析来提供指导，以增强员工的福祉、促进技能发展并提升整体体验。根据Gartner的数据，到2027年，四分之一的CIO将采用ACWF倡议，以将关键角色达到胜任能力所需的时间减少50%。
ACWF leverages intelligent applications (see trend No. 4) and workforce analytics to offer context and guidance, enhancing the workforce's well-being, skill development, and overall experience. According to Gartner, through 2027, one-quarter of CIOs will use ACWF initiatives to reduce time to competency by 50% for key roles.
持续威胁暴露管理（CTEM）是一种系统性的方法，供组织机构持续且一致地评估其数字和物理资产的可访问性、暴露性和可利用性。不同于关注基础设施，CTEM将风险评估和补救措施与威胁向量或业务项目对齐，揭示出潜在漏洞甚至无法修复的威胁。根据Gartner预测，到2026年，优先根据CTEM程序进行安全投资管理的组织机构将减少三分之二的漏洞事件。
Continuous threat exposure management (CTEM) is a systemic approach for organizations to continually and consistently evaluate the accessibility, exposure, and exploitability of their digital and physical assets. Instead of focusing on infrastructure, CTEM aligns assessments and remediation efforts with threat vectors or business projects, uncovering vulnerabilities and even unpatchable threats. Gartner predicts that by 2026, organizations that prioritize their security investments based on a CTEM program will realize a two-thirds reduction in breaches.
根据Gartner的定义，机器客户（也称为“客户机器人”）是指“以付款为交换获取商品或服务的非人类经济参与者。”到2028年，预计将有大约150亿个连接产品具备成为机器客户的潜力，这进一步强调了机器客户比数字商务的出现更为重要。
Gartner defines a machine customer (also called a "custobot") as "as a nonhuman economic actor that obtains goods or services in exchange for payment." By 2028, there will be around 15 billion connected products with the potential to act as customers, eventually becoming more significant than the arrival of digital commerce.
“机器客户在未来十年内有望创造数万亿的收入，并对实体店铺、供应链和全球价值创造产生重大影响。”Willemsen表示。
"Machine customers will most certainly generate trillions in revenue within this decade, with considerable impact on brick-and-mortar storefronts, supply chains, and value creation stories worldwide," Willemsen said.
根据Gartner的建议，组织机构应该考虑提供战略性的机遇来支持这些算法和设备，或者创造新的机器客户来适应变化。
Organizations should consider strategic opportunities to either support these algorithms and devices or create new custobots, according to Gartner.
可持续技术是指旨在促进环境、社会及治理（ESG）目标的数字化解决方案，其着重于长期生态平衡和人权，并越来越强调推动IT技术的高效和可持续使用。基于这种关注，Gartner预测到2027年，将有25%的CIO个人薪酬与他们对可持续技术的影响挂钩。
Sustainable technology encompasses digital solutions aimed at promoting environmental, social, and governance (ESG) objectives, with a focus on long-term ecological balance and human rights. There's a growing emphasis on making IT usage more efficient and sustainable. Because of this concern, Gartner predicts that by 2027, 25% of CIOs will have their personal compensation tied to their impact on sustainable technology.
“80%的CIO在支持企业可持续发展战略方面发挥着重要作用，Gartner的调查显示，责任越来越多地被下放给基础设施和运营（I&O）部门的主管，以提高IT技术的环境表现，尤其是数据中心领域（包括第三方数据中心、边缘计算和云计算）。”Willemsen表示。“CIO和基础设施和运营部门主管在改善资源效率、创新/新产品、降低成本和管控风险等方面有着最大的机会和责任。”
"Eighty percent of CIOs play a role in supporting their enterprise's sustainability strategy, and Gartner inquiries show that responsibilities increasingly are being cascaded down to infrastructure and operations (I&O) leaders to improve IT's environmental performance, particularly around data centers (including colocation, edge, and cloud)," Willemsen said. "CIOs and I&O leaders have the most opportunity to improve aspects like resource efficiency, innovation/new products, cost reduction, and improved risk mitigation outcomes."
Willemsen补充道，个人薪酬主要受到两个推动因素的影响：提升组织地位和竞争地位的机会，以及新兴法规对组织机构的迫切推动。其中欧盟的企业可持续报告指令（CSRD）将于2025年生效。“预计这种趋势将变得更加激烈，并扩展到所有在欧盟开展业务的企业（可能在2027年之前），这将产生全球性的影响，”Willemsen表示。
Willemsen added that the compensation link is primarily driven by two forces: the opportunity to improve competitive position and the much more urgent driver of emerging regulation, with the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) taking effect in the EU in 2025. "It's expected to get more aggressive and extend to all companies who have even a small amount of business in the EU (in or maybe before 2027), which will have global ramifications," he said.
平台工程的主要目标，是创建和维护自助内部开发平台，以提高生产力和用户体验，同时加速商业价值的交付。
The primary objective of platform engineering, which involves the creation and maintenance of self-service internal development platforms, is to enhance productivity and user experiences while expediting the delivery of business value.
平台工程并不仅仅是某个特定角色的个人技能，相反，这是一项团队努力，至少要专注于交付特定的产品，比如开发者平台，"Willemsen说"。为了帮助用户并减少阻力，公司已经开始建立一个平台，用来连接用户和他们所依赖的基础服务或平台。为了创建和维护这些平台，成立了一个团队。平台工程师在共享服务中构建通用功能，这样用户就不需要自己构建操作环境。
"Platform engineering is not just a skillset for a single individual in a specific role. Instead, this is a team effort, where there at minimum is room for a clear focus on delivering a specific product – which can be a platform for developers," Willemsen said. "To help users and reduce friction, companies have begun building platforms that sit between the user and the underlying services or platforms on which they rely. A platform team creates and maintains the platforms. Platform engineers build common capabilities into a shared service so users don’t have to build out their own operating environments."
Gartner预测，到2027年，超过70%的企业将采用行业云平台（ICPs）来加快他们的商业项目，相比今年的不足15%有着显著增长。ICPs是针对特定行业量身定制的云解决方案，还可以进一步定制以满足个别组织的需求。
Gartner forecasts that by 2027, more than 70% of enterprises will adopt industry cloud platforms (ICPs) to expedite their business projects, a significant increase from the less than 15% this year. ICPs are customizable cloud solutions designed for specific industries and can be further tailored to meet the needs of individual organizations.
翻译：
刘宏宇
香港电讯盈科网络规划及营运总处 数据中心基础设施管理
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贾梦檩
阿里云 暖通工程师
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